Coffee Disappearance sounds like a name of a coffee brand somewhere which is very unfamiliar to the disappearance of coffee on our Earth because human beings are addicted to it and keep moving forward with coffee consumption everyday. But, please do not stay too optimistic since the threat of getting coffee disappeared from Earth is real and very obvious. Here is the point of view of Gregory Tumlin, the editor of A Great Coffee blog, on how severve the problem is.
Global warming will effect coffee cultivation severely before getting it disappeared
An unexpected side effect of global warming could be disrupting our daily encounter with coffee. A recent study suggests that the sustained increase in Earth’s temperature will have a severe impact over a vast area of lands where coffee is grown, such as Brazil and Central America or Vietnam in the next 30 years, as exposed by a research published by MIT’s Technology Review that provides a dark and probable outlook into the coffee industry. According to the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, an appalling 80% of coffee-growing territories will be deemed unsuitable to cropping by the year 2050 due to the rise of the temperature around the tropical belt in the globe, which is where conditions are suitable for the growing of different species and beans. In this case, the study refers to the Arabiga, which is the premium bean roasted by major coffee growers. It is no doubt that the threat of coffee disappearance is real and not far from now.
Particularly, Vietnam has been lost thousands of hectares of coffee trees due to the lack of water supply during dry season from January to June, 2016. Many growing regions of coffee in the Central Highlands are being suffered hot temperature, lack of water supply, which affect a large area of coffee production across the country.
Shortage in volume – the first signal of coffee disappearance
Market analysts estimate a shortage of our favorite morning companion and an expected increase in the price we pay for those liquid encounters. According to Bloomberg and other financial sources, the coffee world will warm in more ways than by the cup. The planet is totally in love with coffee, and its demand keeps growing every day amidst an already shortening offer. During the 2015-16 season, the shortage of coffee bags is estimated in the vicinity of 3.5 million bags worldwide, preceded by twice as much the previous year, when shortage was close to 6.4 million, but Brazil’s severe drought in 2014 and its subsequent downfall of its national currency to the dollar, made the prices drop by 27% and created more profitable conditions for coffee growing in this country in particular, but the demand is too high to be covered by Brazil alone, and the rest of other countries are also facing similar problems due to dry spells on their crops, like Mexico’s coffee production, which took a gargantuan loss of 60% that same year, adding further pressure to the market. Hopefully, the production of coffee would be improved to stop coffee disappearance.
How coffee disappearance should be treated
It means “hang on” to your dear beans because rises will go up as the product becomes scarcer. The biggest coffee producer in the world, Starbucks, has been investing time and money studying beans that can resist higher climates as well as trying to reduce its own carbon emissions to stop coffee from being disappeared, but this by no means is a solution to the growing trend of future deprived of the black drink we all want so badly. In the same way, industries can’t work without oil and its price increases when shortages in future production are predicted, coffee market is heading to an unedited present in which drinking a corner espresso might be a thing of the past and may become more like a luxurious and expensive drink.
If this scenario of expensive over the counter lattes seems as dark as a Cuban “Colada” get your milk and sugar ready to swallow some bitter news, because other countries like Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Vietnam are also experiencing decreases in their future productions.
Will exploring new lands able to improve the situation?
Analysts suggest that foreseeable solutions include searching for new lands in other continents like Africa and Asia for suitable terrain to cover the always increasing demand are being considered and taken into action. Northern regions of Vietnam, for example, will become a player taking a position into the market and is on the lookout for new growing places. While the other parts of Vietnam such as Central Highlands and the Middles keep their stable production capacity. This trend is being followed by other companies but a shift from Latin and South America to other places will take time, money and years to obtain a balance in the market, which according to sources, is set to even itself by the year 2030, when demand should meet the offer, according to Hamburg-based wholesale merchant Neumann Kaffe Gruppe’s Hans R. Neumann Stiftung, on a recent statement; as long as coffee growers can keep up the estimated outputs, but with major producing players like Brazil and Vietnam with sketchy futures, the market will get as nervous as someone drinking 4 shots of Spiked Thai Coffee or awake-all-night “ca phe sua da” of Vietnam.
Behind the markets are humans and people react to unexpected and grim predictions in the same way you’d react if you saw a storm heading your way. Some folks brace and prepare for what’s coming, some others look for new places to settle down and keep enjoying their coffee. But this implies the long and always complicated process of dismantling enormous production operations to reinstall them in new places, as this includes logistics, protectionist-type laws, and tax issues, as well as the design and operation of new trade courses for transport and distribution. All these factors affect the coffee value chain, from the humble hands of the coffee grower next to a volcano in El Salvador or Lamdong, Vietnam to the freshly packed product you pick up off from the shelf or order at your favorite Patisserie.
What can you do to stop the fear of coffee disappearance?
Support your local environmental and global groups lobbying for lower carbon emissions that can contain the growth of global warming. So far, this has been the hottest year in modern history, and that is impacting the coffee you will be drinking in say, four years from now. Because that is how long it takes a plant of coffee to start producing beans that will enrich your future macchiatos; so by supporting an effective lobby to press companies to lower their carbon emissions, we could be effectively making sure that coffee prices won’t start spiking to prohibited levels. By this meaning, taking an action to prevent coffee from disappearance means maintaining your chance of enjoying great coffee at most affordable prices.
This would be a catastrophe that could radically change a ritual that today is part of most everyone in the world, as we would be forced to reprogram ourselves to taste our cup of Joe with less frequency than before; so in order to avoid the cravings you are already feeling to go grab a mug and pour some coffee in, check out sites that push for positive changes like Greenpeace, or the Union of Concerned Scientists and help them create a bigger awareness, force new low carbon emission international agreements and get more active than the average Joe, because unless all coffee drinkers tale action, we could be switching to new sources to get our morning delight. Remember that low or zero carbon emission will stop coffee disappearance and save our best cups of coffee.